Collingwood / Georgian Triangle Market View - March 2009

While the latest cold snowy blast of weather experienced in Collingwood and the Georgian Triangle suggests that Winter is reluctant to release the area from its frosty grasp, the spring real estate market is looking considerably sunnier and showing early signs that a thaw might be in the air. Statistics released by the Georgian Triangle Real Estate Board for the month of March illustrate a marked positive trend developing to the extent that the negative variance in real estate activity experienced in the area on a year over year basis is shrinking.

Specifically, based on the monthly Performance Record published by the Board, while sales recorded for the month of March are still down almost 19% from March 2008 (108 units sold compared to 133 last year), that is a significant improvement over the figures recorded for both February and January of this year which were 42 and 57% respectively below sales figures recorded for the same monthly periods in 2008 for the Georgian Triangle Real Estate Board. The same trend is playing out in dollar volume for sales in the area with sales volume in dollar terms for March coming in almost 35% behind March of last year while February and January were 49 and 59% respectively lower than February and January 2008.

As is the case in the Toronto housing market, the figures indicate and the statistics support that the greatest activity appears to be occurring at the lower end of the price spectrum with the high end market continuing to lag behind with sluggish sales and greater negative sales variances year over year ranging from almost -61% in the $350-500,000 price range to -35% in the $500-800,000 price range, and -100% in the $800-1 million price range, and over -83% for sales over $1 million.

460 new listings came on to the market this March, 11.4% more than in March 2008. Based on the Board’s Market Summary Results for the first quarter, however, new listings were down year to date with 1,317 compared to 1,342 compared to the end of March the year previous. That translates to a 1.9% decrease year over year. While it may be too early to tell, and the post Easter market should provide a clearer picture of developing trends, if the current positive trajectory continues regarding negative year over year monthly variances, healthy market forces of supply and demand might foretell a more bullish spring and summer market.

Much like the Toronto and area real estate markets, prices in several of the areas within the Georgian Triangle do not appear to be reflecting the same dramatic declines as those sustained by many of the housing markets south of the border. Specifically, according to the Board’s Market Summary for the first quarter of 2009, 12 month average sale prices year to date as of the end of March 2009 have actually increased in Collingwood 4.7% compared with the same period last year, rising from $246,026 to $257,711. Average sale prices in Tiny Township (-.1%), Wasaga Beach(+.6%) and Meaford (-1.5%) have remained remarkably steady, while those in Clearview and Grey Highlands show the greatest 12 month average sale price declines year to date at 22.1 and 26.7% respectively. The Town of Blue Mountains marked a 6.4% decline in 12 month average sale price year over year with figures of $436,177 recorded for the end of March 2009 compared to $466,248 for the same period in 2008. The average sale price across the Board year to date was $261,222 compared to $288,378 last year.

It is not possible given some of the economic challenges that both the government and private sectors continue to face with respect to financing and employment to provide any definitive view as to what the future holds for the real estate market. All in all, however, real estate fundamentals look promising. Mortgage rates are at historic lows, equity markets are showing increasing signs of stabilization, and buyers appear to be recognizing greater perceived value in properties in the Georgian Triangle. In short there appears to be good reason to be optimistic that strengthening trends will continue into the spring and summer markets.

Prepared by: Richard Stewart, Vice-President, Legal Counsel
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